The other day, I called O.J. Mayo the "Most Improved of the 1/4-Way of the Season" Player (an award that I am sure he's going to put on his trophy shelf right next to his draft day picture). However, as a I pointed out, I highly doubt that Mayo will actually be the deserving winner of this award at year's end.
And that's because O.J. isn't really playing better basketball.
Dude...wait..wat?
Ok, sort of. Bear with me, I'll explain. Let's compare OJ's last season with this one:
| SEA | POS | Min | WP48 | PoP48 | WP | PTS | DRB | ORB | REB | AST | TO | BLK | STL | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayo 12-13 (DAL) | SG | 784 | .175 | 2.4 | 2.9 | 28.2 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 3.1 |
| Mayo 11-12 (MEM) | SG | 1771 | .072 | -0.8 | 2.7 | 22.6 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 3.7 |
| Average SG | SG | 1609 | .099 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 21.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 3.5 |
Ok, so right now you're thinking my math skills suck, because .175 is a much bigger number than .072, right? Bear with me some more. Notice how most of these numbers are pretty much the same? Sure, he got better at fouls, but he's worse in steals and turnovers. So what explains his huge increase in productivity? Well, I should add O.J. Mayo to the FAQ, because his current season is really all the proof you need that Wins Produced does not "undervalue scoring" or "overvalue rebounds'. That's because basically all of Mayo's increased productivity comes from him transforming into a sharpshooting scoring machine:
| FG% | 2FG% | 3FG% | FT% | eFG% | TS% | FGA | 3FGA | PPS | FTA | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayo 12-13 (DAL) | 48.9% | 46.9% | 52.5% | 83.3% | 58.6% | 62.2% | 20.4 | 7.5 | 1.38 | 5.1 |
| Mayo 11-12 (MEM) | 40.8% | 43.4% | 36.4% | 77.3% | 47.6% | 51.3% | 19.9 | 7.5 | 1.13 | 4.7 |
| Average SG | 43.4% | 46.4% | 36.6% | 80.4% | 49.0% | 53.6% | 18.0 | 5.4 | 1.20 | 5.0 |
52.5% from 3!? That's some straight shooting.
And here's where it gets interesting. This article started with an email inquiry from Professor David Berri:
Do you know what Mayo's WP48 would be if he shot from 3-point range this year as well as he did last year (and nothing else about this year changed)?
"Why no", I thought, "I don't know. But I bet my fancy database could tell me!"
Luckily, as the tables above illustrate, and as Dave's question alludes, there is already a ton of evidence that O.J.'s game is pretty much the same as it was last year, right down to the number of threes he is attempting. At the time of this writing, Mayo had attempted 115 threes, hitting 61 of them, and scored 460 points. Based on the per-48-minute averages, he would have shot 113.8 last year (the table above is rounding his 3FGA/48 numbers, in case you are wondering at the difference). If Mayo were shooting at career 36.6% (that's a more realiable sample, but it just so happens to be very close to last year's 36.4%), he'd have hit 42 of them (I'm rounding again). So, if that were the case, we would subract 57 points (19*3), and add 19 missed field goals to OJ's totals, and recalculate his production:
| SEA | POS | Min | WP48 | PoP48 | WP | PTS | DRB | ORB | REB | AST | TO | BLK | STL | PF |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mayo 12-13 (FAKE) | SG | 784 | .069 | -0.8 | 2.6 | 24.6 | 4.7 | 0.9 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 3.9 | 0.3 | 1.2 | 3.1 |
| Mayo 11-12 (MEM) | SG | 1771 | .072 | -0.8 | 2.7 | 22.6 | 4.9 | 0.8 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 3.4 | 0.6 | 1.9 | 3.7 |
| Average SG | SG | 1609 | .099 | 0.0 | 3.3 | 21.6 | 4.4 | 1.2 | 5.7 | 4.6 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 1.6 | 3.5 |
Kind of eerie how the result is so similar to his 11-12 season, isn't it? In other words, just about the only difference between last year and this year for O.J. Mayo is:
- he's hitting more of his threes and hitting more of his free throws
- his steals and blocks are down slightly
- his fouls are down slightly, which mostly makes up for the steals and blocks being down
And truthfully, at the end of the day, if the only difference is that the shots are going in, especially when most of those shots are the same types of shots he has always been taking, is that really what we mean by "most improved"?
Now, I'm certain Mark Cuban will make an argument that this is largely coaching. That in Rick Carlisle's system, the looks that Mayo gets are better than he got in Memphis. But I have a very hard time believing this, for several reasons. The first is that Dallas doesn't have very much post scoring to draw defenses it; their best big is Wright, and he doesn't shoot a lot (one suspects that his unreasonably short leash might be the reason for that). The second is that defenses read scouting reports. They know that Dallas' big perimeter threat is Mayo, especially with Nowitski out. And the third is that...well, there's little evidence of it. If Carlisle's system is good at this kind of thing, why didn't have any super 3 point shooters last year? Jason Terry, Vince Carter, and Nowitzki were all good but hardly outerwordly. In other words, if it's the coaching, why is Mayo the only beneficiary? Does anyone honestly believe that suddenly O.J. Mayo is the best three point shooter of all time? It's much easier to belive that he is just running pretty hot. Occam's Razor is my motto.
If one is willing to concede that there is some element of coaching and general young-guys-getting-better involved here (and for the record, I am), it's more realistic to assume a percentage of around 40%, which means that Mayo has improved from "meh" to "average" play. Which is OK, for $4 million annually. But one suspects that winning the "most improved player" award will probably lead people to believe that he is worth quite a bit more than that.
After all, someone paid DeMar DeRozan $10 million annually, right?
