PISTONS: WIN WITH YOUTH

From the Truehoop Bullets today:

  • The 9-22 Pistons are still deciding whether to focus on winning now or playing their young guys as much as possible.

Following that link:

Honestly, I’m surprised Lawrence Frank even accepted the premise of the question. He’s usually so insistent about always playing to win in the present, I figured he’d never acknowledge the Pistons would even consider discussing the idea of a youth movement. So, I guess this is a sign of progress.

I'm rather surprised too. But then, that's because I think the Pistons strategy should be to play their youngest player (Andre Drummond) as much as possible right now, but not in the name of a "youth movement", but because he's their best player. Maybe they are trying to keep Drummond's contract extension in 4 years cheaper by preventing him from winning the rookie of the year award and 2 all-star births in his first 3 years (the so-called "Derrick Rose" rule that allows a player to sign a bigger max extension).

  POS Min WP48 PoP48 Wins PTS DRB ORB REB AST TO BLK STL PF
Drummond C 599 .330 7.2 4.1 17.1 10.2 7.2 17.4 1.1 2.1 3.8 2.0 4.6
Average C C 590 .099 0.0 1.2 18.9 8.7 4.3 13.0 2.6 2.8 2.2 1.2 4.8
  FG% 2FG% 3FG% FT% eFG% TS% FGA 3FGA PPS FTA
Drummond 57.1% 57.2% 50.0% 40.6% 57.5% 55.7% 12.9 0.2 1.32 5.5
Average C 49.9% 50.7% 28.8% 68.6% 50.5% 54.1% 15.2 0.5 1.25 5.2

It's now been 600 minutes. Drummond has been playing like a beast. His numbers in rebounding, blocking shots, getting steals, and avoiding fouls are fantastic (to be above average in fouls as a rookie while blocking 4 shots/48? Amazing!). His rookie season compares favorably to Dwight Howard at this point. Hell, these numbers are better than Dwight's rookie season and compare favorably to his fourth season!

Ok, he's a terrible free throw shooter. Get over it. Fine, play him heavy minutes in Q1-Q3 then. He's hardly the first big man to have trouble in this department, it shouldn't be that hard to coach around. At this point, there is simply zero evidence on the court that whatever secret knowledge that Frank thinks he sees in practice actually reflects the truth. His recent spin about how "there are certain things the numbers don't tell you" sounds suspiciously like code-speech for "I better make up some stuff about why I haven't been playing him or I'm going to look as stupid as Kurt Rambis did for benching Kevin Love all the time."

This isn't rocket science. Dominant big men win NBA games, and Drummond looks like a dominant big man so far. Playing your best guys generally wins more games than playing your oldest guys unless you're coaching the Spurs.

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benjamin durham

dre is on a curve like all rookies hes got to learn the game......L.F. ......ARE YOU SERIOUS WITH THAT SHIT...lol hes 7 times better than monroe but were going to limit his minutes cause thats the way its always been done. Detroit needs to trade monroe just to force franks hand. him and knight could also bring alot of value cause they score and have potential

146 days ago

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Michael Motherwell

What if he has Asthma or Mono or something medical? That would make sense in limiting his minutes.

146 days ago

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Jon C

Drumond is playing so well that the coaching staff knows they are going to lose control of him very soon. And by that I mean, if (and it looks like when) he becomes perceived as the next great big man in the league, then he has the power. The franchise then goes into "Will Drumond re-sign?" mode. That means coaches (who are easily replaceable based on no salary cap hit from them) need to, on some level, defer to him. I'm not talking about out-right kissing his butt. But I am saying it will change. Frank and the other coaching staff are probably using this time as best as they can to push and teach. They won't be able to push him the same way if he wins ROY.

And for now, who cares about winning games? The Pistons have no chance in the playoffs this year. Drumond isn't that good (and yes that FT% is a big problem, you know it is a percentage that is so low that intentional fouling is a winning strategy, just for now teams aren't going to bother to do it, but they would in an playoff game). And neither is the rest of the team.

I think this is different than the Love thing, because that went on for about one and half seasons. Too long. And with Love there was never a motor, work ethic issue. Drummond, I wouldn't be so sure about.

145 days ago

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Andrew Johnson

I'd think you guys would be a bit more humble about the advice on Drummond after WoW gave the Pistons front office a D for drafting him in the 9 spot.

145 days ago

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Patrick Minton

Andrew,

This hasn't got anything to do with humility. We were wrong, and we're fine with that. We've been saying "we were obviously wrong" about Durmmond all season long. If we wanted everyone to forget that we were wrong about Drummond, we wouldn't be bringing him up so much, would we? We thought Drummond was too risky. I still think, given the info at the time, that this was the correct analysis. But the information has changed. Detroit got lucky and the risk paid off.

So, we've changed our minds and admitted we were wrong in the face of new evidence. We're all pretty Bayesian here. When you get new information, you re-evaluate. 600 minutes of professional ball (+ a bunch of pre-season minutes, which incidentally correlate well with regular season performance) is a lot of new evidence. Drummond will hardly be the last player we were wrong about (see Michael Beasley for an example of how we were wrong in the opposite way).

Detroit, however, is doing the opposite. They decided Drummond was "raw" and "needs lots of work" at the beginning of the season, and are and sticking stubbornly to that belief. despite all the emerging evidence that this is not true (or that it doesn't matter -- even if he's raw, he's still producing more wins than the "polished" guys on the roster).

Michael,

If has a medical condition, it's hard to believe that could escape media scrutiny, and hard to understand why the team would want to keep it secret.

145 days ago

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Patrick Minton

Jon,

That's an interesting point but I think winning matters a lot, even if it isn't winning in the playoffs. It's a lot easier to go from 35-40 wins to contention than from 25-30 wins. And playoff experience really matters -- getting to the playoffs is worthwhile even if you lose in the first round.

Monroe's had a terrible year but he's coming around. Having two great big men would be good enough to get the 7th-8th spot in the east (although it is probably too late this year).

145 days ago

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Brett Gunter

Patrick,
This could be the OKC 'strategy' all over again. Detroit can't very well play Drummond at SG, the way the Thunder/Sonics did with Durant, to keep wins down and get another high draft pick. The only way they can limit wins is to limit Drummond's minutes; then they can turn that pick into another superstar-level performer, and challenge for a championship for years to come.
I don't believe a word of that, of course. If they actually follow the Thunder 'blueprint,' they will get lucky and draft one star late in the 1st round and trade for another who was also drafted in the 20's, luck into a #2 when the consensus #1 has feet (or knees) of clay, draft a mostly average PG who blows away the eyeball test instead of the best PF in years, and give that PG a max contract, forcing them to trade one of their real stars when they can't convince him to sacrifice his own money for the good of the team--over an amount of money that, by NBA standards, is negligible. I'm leaving out a few things--like taking Jeff Green over Joachim Noah with the pick they got for Ray Allen--but when you look closely, OKC's 'plan' resembles 50-50 lottery drafting and three strokes of luck. Maybe Detroit would be better off just playing their best players, and letting the franchise win enough games to attract talented new teammates. That's completely out of vogue these days, though; look at all the success Charlotte is having the other way.

145 days ago

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Frederic Bush

If he is on the floor vs the Spurs, he will get hacked until he is no longer on the floor.

145 days ago

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Luke Gregory Caruana

I actually haven't minded them keeping his minutes down a bit early on. He is very young and he is clearly raw. In some early games it was clear his conditioning was a bit limiting (which is not surprising for a rookie) and I would prefer a coach not just handing their rookie playing time. But enough is enough, the time has come. Play him off the bench if you want but any game that he doesn't play 30 minutes is a disgrace.

By the way Brett, awesome comment on "the OKC model"!! It is hilarious that teams actually try and follow this way to success and not think there is an insane amount of luck involved.

145 days ago

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Xavier Quach

Luke, as every vet NBA player will tell you, the only way to get into game shape is to play in games. There's no amount of cycling, running, or practice that can compare to playing IN game.

And as was previously mentioned, raw or not he's still the BEST player on the team, right now. You're not simply handing him playing time if he's just better.

144 days ago

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Kevin Sawyer

There is a very simple explanation. Like Joe Dumars, Frank looks at per game stats. He seems Drummond getting 7 and 7, and says (he's coming along okay). He flatly admitted he doesn't believe in projections based on per minute numbers. "This isn't Rotisserie basketball" and all that.

144 days ago

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Tomi Mendel

is Jae Crowder the new Michael Beasley?

142 days ago

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Julien Rodger

Well it's clear some franchises have a "tough love" strategy with rookies, not giving them minutes until they've more than proven they're worth it. The most likely reason for Drummond's minutes however is Frank having them both written down as centers. There will likely come a time when Monroe moves back to PF but right now it's clear Frank doesn't see things that way

142 days ago

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Patrick Minton

Tomi,

No. Jae Crowder is the new Wes Johnson.

141 days ago

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Omar Kreidieh

I have a question for you and its related both to the efficiency and WP48 that you always use on this site as well as your assesment on drummond. Im new to this statistics side of basketball and to your site but it seems to me ( if I understand it correctly and please correct me if im wrong) that WP48 and efficiency would tend to overrate players that arent a main focus of a team's offence. Drummond or similar players ( Chandler comes to mind) will get the ball when hes right under the basket and theres a sure point to be had. They don't channel their offense through him. The ultimate consequence is he ends up shooting a high percentage and doesnt lose the ball often ( losing possessions). Now if we take 5 players like him and put them in the same team, none of the able to "Create" their own shot or score anything other than a 100% FG attempt, the team would fail. Obviously thats the extreme and no one would put 5 players like that together, but the effect on the go to guys who can "create" points will likely mean they will have to take more lower percentage shots. So in other words, to rephrase my question, could drummond's WP48 or efficiency be coming at the cost of the WP48 or efficiency of the other players on the team( particularly the go to guys?) If you can chart the WP48 for players like Stuckey, Monroe, Prince, and Bynum when drummond is on the floor VS when he is not... it would be great....

140 days ago

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Xavier Quach

Omar, great question. I think the WoW people would say, "that's why you have position adjustments". Centers are rated against the average center, PGs against the average PG, etc. A .100 WP48 PG does not produced the same raw numbers as a .100 SF, they're both average for their positions.

140 days ago

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Patrick Minton

Omar,

Xavier put this well. Notice that if you compare LeBron to the average PF, his numbers are great. But if you compare him to small forwards, his shooting and rebounding are "I-can't-believe-he's-human" great. And his WP48 reflects that -- he's .291 as a PF (which is still All-NBA levels) but .361 as an SF (which is MVP good, even in the realm of All-time Greatest).

One of my biggest problems this year has been trying to figure out how many minutes players like LeBron (who play lots of positions) play where. Chris Paul is easy, he's pretty much always the PG. LeBron is not, he moves from SF to PF a lot and sometimes he's even on the floor with Lewis as the only bigs, and I'm pretty sure Lewis isn't playing the 5.

On floor/off floor numbers, though...these samples are insanely small and therefore just really don't give you useful information.

139 days ago

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Omar Kreidieh

Thanks for the answer. I dont think I explained myself well so il try again. Drummond doesnt seem to take many shots unless theyre right underneath the basket and its a high percentage shot which is understandable considering his role on the offensive end. My question was whether such a role would limit the number of offensive options on the team so that the rest of the players will tend to have to take more difficult shots than they otherwise would have had they had another viable offensive option that can create his shots ( eg. : Maxiel can drop a long shot , will be passed to, so the difficult situations or go to plays that tend ot be more difficult, lower percentage shots that will bring down a player's WP48 will be distributed on more players maxiel being one of them.) So does drummond being on the floor mean that the other players will have tougher shots and lower percentage attempts that would bring down THEIR (the other players who are still playing the same position except with one less "go to option") WP48? Thats my question, essentially if his efficiency comes at the expense of lowering that of his teammates. Im just curious because like you im bewildered by the fact that he doesnt get more minutes and this is the only explanation I can think of even though my hunch tells me its also wrong because of the way the entire bench is playing :S

139 days ago

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benjamin durham

Omar, there has been alot work done on exactly these questions by the wp community. as far as if drummond is "hurting" his team mates its been found that players production is fairly consistant independant of who they play with. also theres no real correlation with usage and efficiency. the best guess as to the reasoning of dres limited minutes is that frank knows something all us stats guys, all the traditional analyst and basislly everyone on the planet, doesnt know. frank is THAT guy.

138 days ago

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Brian Foster

Omar,

There are several articles of Wages of Wins about about that topic, the main point they make is that stats that account for a player's teammates like adjusted plus-minus are inconsistent and just aren't that predictive, here's a decent place to start reading:

http://wagesofwins.com/2011/03/05/deconstructing-the-adjusted-plus-minus-model/

138 days ago

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Omar Kreidieh

thanks for the links everyone ... its a cool side to basketball I can tell you that :)

138 days ago


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