QUICK FINALS THOUGHTS

My colleagues over at the Wages of Wins seem to have the Finals pretty well covered, and in any case at this point there isn't a lot of analysis I can add that hasn't already been said lots of times. Despite this, I'm going to let a few random thoughts fly.

James vs Durant

Great vs. Greater Than.

  • Durant is really great, James is better.   The Heat, however, have a problem in that LeBron is the Heat's best POWER Forward, so it's hard to field lineups where James can defend Durant without creating other bad defensive matchups for the Heat.  This will continue until/if Bosh steps up and plays like his post-redeem-team self.
  • Westbrook shoots too many shots. Interestingly, this piece by Dean Oliver and Alok Pattini manages to miss the whole point by starting with the assumption that he takes too many shots away from Durant. Nice qualification, there, but Durant gets plenty of shots, about 25 per 48 minutes. Isn't it obvious that the Thunder would not have won so many games if Durant were the only guy he could pass to instead of shooting all those shots?  Westbrook plays with Harden and Ibaka as well, and should be using his quickness to get both of them more shots rather than to hoist up bad ones himself. Which brings me to...
  • Harden is essentially as good as Wade.  He's absolutely murderous in the pick and roll, and great at getting to the line. The Thunder should be doing everything in their power to get Harden more opportunities.
    Raw Stats
      Min WP48 Wins PTS DRB ORB REB AST TO BLK STL PF
    Wade 1625 .247 8.4 32.0 4.8 2.2 7.0 6.6 3.8 1.9 2.4 3.2
    Harden 1946 .263 10.6 25.8 5.5 0.7 6.2 5.6 3.4 0.4 1.5 3.7
     
    Average SG 1229 .099 2.5 20.2 4.5 1.1 5.5 4.2 2.7 0.4 1.5 3.1

    Shooting Efficiency
      FG% 2FG% 3FG% FT% eFG% TS% FGA 3FGA PPS FTA
    Wade 49.7% 51.3% 26.8% 79.1% 50.6% 55.9% 24.7 1.7 1.29 8.8
    Harden 49.1% 57.9% 39.0% 84.6% 58.2% 66.0% 15.5 7.2 1.66 9.1
     
    Average SG 42.7% 46.2% 35.5% 79.7% 48.5% 52.5% 17.4 5.7 1.16 4.2

    The fact that Harden and Durant are on this team is precisely why I said in February that I would rather pay a guy like Chalmers $5 million than a guy like Westbrook $17 million.  Part of my argument was that Harden would command $10 million.  Hahahahahahaha. At this point Harden is going to shove $10 million offers right in his paper shredder. Next year, when Harden wants THE MAXIMUM to sign an extension, this Westbrook contract is going to look bad

These finals have been pretty entertaining so far, and it will be run to see if the Heat can keep the home advantage and prove Arturo right. It's hard to win 3 in a row against a team this good, even at home, so I have never quite understood why the 2/3/2 format is considered "better" for the away team than 2/2/1/1/1.

Categories: 2012 Draft

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Brett Gunter

Patrick,

Nice post, as always. Harden isn't having the best Finals, so far, but I doubt it hurts his earning power a year from now. I knew he was a higher-% shooter than Wade, but seeing the numbers side-by-side is shocking. As you and I have discussed, there will be no shortage of teams willing to offer maximum deals to him AND Ibaka, and OKC would seem to have little chance of keeping both. If Brooks' rotations are indicative of their talent evaluations, it would suggest Serge will be allowed to walk; I can't see them getting lucky enough to package Russ and Perk for an elite, but pass-first, PG (Chris Paul?), or that it would even create enough cap space to keep their actual best players. They might be better off to try giving both away for picks and/or expiring contracts, and rolling the dice on some young PG prospects; someone will be gullible enough, especially if OKC rallies to win the title. That seems unlikely, unless someone can slap some sense into Brooks; at least 3 of his 4 best players are not getting enough minutes.

The biggest hurdle for OKC remains Westbrook; usually, to find such an unrepentant ballhog, you have to go much further west and watch my team. Like you, I'm impressed by the convolutions of his apologists to frame the dilemma inaccurately. He needs to pass the ball more--not to Durant, who can lead the league in scoring in spite of him, but to OTHER teammates who shoot more efficiently; this includes nearly everyone on his team, and everyone who should be currently getting a whiff of court time.

On another subject, do you think we should view Wade's postseason struggles as an injury-related one-off, or does his age and medical history suggest we may be seeing a permanent decline? If the latter, it might be the death rattle for the Big Three; it became the Big Two and Bosh right away, and might be one bad knee from becoming LeBron and the Jordannaires.

339 days ago


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