SLOW NEWS DAY

Ok, nothing to see here. Move along. I know it seems like a big deal, but honestly, this happens all the time. Four-team trade involving 3 top-ten players swapping teams? Standard. Not really even much point writing about it, but I guess I'll take a stab anyway.

MVP center moving to the Lakers? She is not impressed.

MVP center moving to the Lakers? Not impressed.

In basketball as well is in markets, comparative advantage is the basis of trading. Comparative advantage means that trading is not a zero-sum game; it's possible for both sides to be better off after a trade. In basketball this usually happens because teams are overloaded at a position; a team with two great point guards might trade one to a team with two great small forwards for one of them. Both teams are better off because now both teams can have their two best players on the floor at the same time.

Well, Orlando wasn't paying attention in Economics 101 when they covered comparative advantage. This trade makes three teams better and one team a lot worse, which is pretty close to a zero-sum transaction. In other words, Orlando got fleeced in this trade. They are going to be a 30-win team (at best) for years to come. And their still above the cap!

If you've been living under a rock, the Orlando Magic have agreed on a four team trade to ship out Dwight Howard:

Team GETS LOSES
Orlando Arron Afflalo, Al Harrington, Moe Harkless, Nikola Vucevic, Josh McRoberts, and Christian Eyenga, 3 first round picks, 2 2nd round picks Dwight Howard, Chris Duhon, Jason Richardson, and Earl Clark, Jason Richardson
Denver Andre Iguodala Al Harrington, Arron Afflalo, 1st round pick
L.A. Dwight Howard, Chris Duhon, Jason Richardson, Earl Clark Andrew Bynum, Josh McRoberts, Christian Eyenga, 1st round pick
Philadelphia Andrew Bynum, Jason Richardson Andre Iguodala, Moe Harkless, Nikola Vucevic, 1st round pick

Seriously, how terrible is this deal for the Magic? They get some young players and picks, but they get no cap relief. In a 4-way trade involving 3 all-stars, they somehow manage to not end up with any of them. They still have to pay Glen Davis and Hedo Turkoglu. And with all the young bigs on this roster, the last thing they need is Glen Davis eating up court time, too. The only good news I see is that I really like Vucevic -- he's a very good rebounder and doesn't turn the ball over.  If his shooting efficiency climbs, he'll be very effective.

For Philidelphia, this is an interesting trade that won't help them much this year. Philly is unfortunately about to discover how good Iggy was because as good as Bynum is, he is not going to make up for the downgrade that Young is from Iggy. I expect them to be a lottery team this year, which is truly amazing given how promising their core looked last year. With this trade, Rod Thorn has now achieved something astonishing -- he has managed to ship out every single win producer from last year's surprisingly successful season (except Hawes, who barely counts since he got injured early on, and who didn't play enough minutes for us to tell if his transformation was the real deal or not). All those moves are looking particulary moronic now, because wouldn't it be nice to surround your shiny new franchise player with competent players like Meeks, Williams, and Brand? They'd probably be a 45+ win team if Bynum stays healthy, and with Orlando and Chicago gutting themselves, that's probably a 6th seed. What will they do now, play Young or Hawes at power forward?

On the other hand, this is certainly better than the more likely outcome, which was Rod Thorn trading away Iggy for next-to-nothing. This certainly looks a lot better than Derrick Williams and 2 first round picks, right? And I guess if you are a philly fan, there's got to be some chance that Thorn gets fired midseason when the team is "underperforming" (although, sadly, Doug Collins is more likely to be the victim).

For L.A....well, it really doesn't matter much. The addition of Nash already pushed them to contenders (assuming Kobe lets Nash do his thing...if he doesn't, you're going to see the Steve Nash that played for Terry Porter). And Dwight is without a doubt a better center than Bynum. But...going from very good to great is not that massive an upgrade. This is really only a marginal upgrade for the Lakers. There's nothing really wrong with that, of course, since they barely had to give any other pieces up to get this upgrade (seriously, how the hell does this keep happening?). But at the end of the day, I do sometimes ask myself why the Lakers bothered.

Now...for Denver...wow, what an upgrade. To lose one of their worst players, and to get one of the best players in the league, all in one transaction? Massive upgrade. Of course, they now have a few too many small forwards, and there are still some bad players left that Karl seems to like too much (Brewer and Mozgov).

Here's what should happen:

  • Iggy should slide over to shooting guard so that a) Gallo can play his more natural SF and gets more floor time, b) the Manimal gets burn at power forward, where he's basically Dennis Rodman 2.0, and c) Corey Brewer doesn't see the floor.

Here's what might happen:

  • Miller/Chandler play the 2, Iggy the 3, Manimal the 4, and Gallo the 6th man. This isn't terrible.

Here, however, is what George Karl will do:

  • Iggy plays the 3, Gallo plays the 4, Brewer or Chandler plays the 2, and Mozgov starts at C, with Miller the 6th man and Brewer/Chandler/Manimal/McGee all playing aroung 20-25mpg, Denver will only improve a little bit, and everyone will go back to bitching about how Iggy is overrated even though he'll be the best wing on the court in games not involving OKC or MIA.

Never get involved in a land war in Asia, Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line, and Never, EVER, bet against George Karl's stupidity. The best thing Masai can do now is to trade Chandler, Brewer, Mozgov, or all three, for...well, anything. Just take away George's toys and you'll be fine.

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Brett Gunter

Patrick,

I've been touting your 'average - terrible = terrific' axiom repeatedly since this trade, and Denver is certainly the poster child for this dynamic. And then there's Karl; my under/over for minutes per game is 25 for IGGY, much less Faried, McGee, etc.

As for LA, I'm certainly biased, and I may have traded in my biofocals for a rose-colored set, but I feel like there's a chance for a powerful synergy there. Nash may have the chops to take the ball out of Kobe's hands just enough, which might make Kobe more efficient; Howard should be a better fit with Pau; Nash makes Howard (and everyone else) better on offense; Howard makes Nash (and everyone else) better on defense. Metta has one mission: Keep Durant and LeBron from dominating. He can't, of course, but he can give it his best.

On the other hand: Dwight's back is still in question; maybe Kobe and Pau just got old last year; maybe Nash gets old THIS year. The over/under for wins could be 60, or 40, and i wouldn't risk it either way.

287 days ago

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Luke Gregory Caruana

Orlando were never going to get a particularly good deal for Dwight. But they went through a year of hell for this!!!!

287 days ago

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motherwell

Signing Jodie Meeks helps: http://espn.go.com/los-angeles/nba/story/_/id/8257185/source-los-angeles-lakers-reach-two-year-deal-guard-jodie-meeks - http://www.thenbageek.com/players/compare?utf8=%E2%9C%93&player_ids%5B%5D=254 - first solid role player signing for Lakers.

286 days ago

J_lin_normal

robert miller

I agree with Pat on this one. Lakers look to have some pretty good synergy with Dwight. Bynum was a good Center but he liked operating in the post and at times stifled the offense. Howard gives you a better screen setter, finisher, and defender. Theoretically, he should improve them a bit more than expected. The main question mark is Kobe. Will he settle into more of a finishing role? If he isn't completely daft he might note that he has been most successful on team USA as a finisher and not a ball handler.

As for George Karl, I think he is just in the camp of coaches that likes to play veterans and "character guys" A LOT. The man has been through plenty in his life and I would rather not call him stupid. I will say this though: Masai has made too many intelligent Advanced metric moves for him not to nudge Karl to play these guys. We should be seeing a lot of:
Lawson/Iggy/Gallo/Faried/Mcgee (Nuggets are gonna be so fun to watch)

I'm not so sure about your 76ers projections. While they did make several outright STUPID decisions over the summer they made a few smart ones (low-key). For instance, I don't think Collins will fall in love with Young starting...it's only a matter of time before Dorrell Wright is the starting SF. Turner should get a lot of minutes at the SG and he will probably be average. TYoung and Lavoy Allen figure to get the lion share of minutes at the 4 but I suspect the Sixers will make a few moves to prevent them from being so thin at PF (Kwame Brown is a PROBLEM). Barring serious injury, I comfortably put them in the playoffs as a 7 seed. Should be fun to see what Jrue Holiday can do with a great big man down low.

@Luke, can we be so sure? The proposed Rockets package looked pretty appetizing. I'd gladly take Royce White, Jeremy Lamb, draft picks, and some cap relief (in the form of them taking on JRich, Duhon, AND Davis) for Dwight ANY day if I'm looking to rebuild.

285 days ago

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Patrick Minton

Robert,

We WoW writers have had the Karl argument many times. He's obviously a man with a lot of willpower and character, but the fact that he's had cancer is irrelevant. That earns my sympathy, and my admiration for his perseverance, but that does not make him smarter, or make him off-limits to my criticism. It would be hardly be fair to people like David Kahn and Rod Thorn if I took the kid gloves off when talking about Karl.

284 days ago

J_lin_normal

robert miller

Feel free to critique, but when we start calling people "stupid" and the vitriol runs too high it's difficult for me to hear the valid criticism. I'm not just sticking up for George Karl (though I'm pretty sure he isn't cognitively impaired). It's a general pattern in this blog. It veers into being vitriolic at times (which might be more forgivable if I found it humorous and harmless in nature). For instance, I can criticize this blog....but when it gets to the point where I start off-handedly saying things like "never, ever, bet against Frank's stupidity" it just feels too far for me. I like substantive critiques (hell...I make a lot of em) but I try to tow the line and not insult people.

That being said, I respect your work. We need people like you to point the finger (terrible "Scarface" misquote) and to shine a light on bad/good personnel moves using sound numbers-based analysis. Keep providing the good stats...I'll definitely be watching throughout the season (this will be the first season that I will attempt to watch the game with an eye for advanced stats).

284 days ago

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Luke Gregory Caruana

Robert, I agree that the Rockets deal looked better as do some of the Nets proposals (expirings and better picks). The problem is that when you are trading far and away the best center in the league you would hope to get a top 10 or at least a top 20 player in return. Unfortunately with Dwight's limit on teams he would resign with, he screwed any leverage that Orlando may have had.

284 days ago

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Brett Gunter

Luke,
Reports indicate the absence of a Top 10 or 20 player from Orlando's compensation was a calculated choice (made, I suppose, on the crappiest calculator money can buy), based on the flawed idea of getting worse for a year (or 5, or 10) in order to get better. They turned down not only Bynum, but also Iguodala; this will enable them to lose FAR more games, giving them a better chance to be bitterly disappointed in the draft--either by failing to get the lottery position their crappy team 'earns,' or by rolling the dice on an untried player and drafting a dud (there is a long list of franchise 'saviors' who, as it turned out, couldn't play a lick). Proponents of this moronic strategy erroneously point to San Antonio, who had a GOOD team before David Robinson was hurt, AND beat the lottery odds (could have drafted as low as 6th). Their other example is OKC, who were lucky to NOT have the chance to draft Greg Oden, and took Jeff Green over Joachim Noah and Russell Westbrook over Kevin Love. Somehow, they failed to notice how this plan worked out for Charlotte THIS YEAR.

Robert,
George Karl certainly seems courageous and tough; he probably IS both, though I have no way of knowing. In any event, it is irrelevant to the point of Patrick's post, which concerns Karl's coaching ability only. What I KNOW is that Karl consistently plays the wrong players, and I wouldn't need Wins Produced to know Kenneth Faried deserves more minutes than Al Harrington. Nice guy? Maybe. Tough guy? Probably. Stupid coach? Yep; there's proof. Am I oversimplifying? Possibly. Whatever the inside, untold story may be, the guys who do the most to win games spend too much time on the pine. This could be corrected by a bright 10-year-old, much less any experienced coach.

By the way: Who the hell is Frank? You mention him frequently, in a tone suggesting readers should know.

284 days ago

J_lin_normal

robert miller

*Frank is someone that doesn't exist. I didn't want to say Patrick* because I felt it would be rude. Just trying to be respectful.

283 days ago


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