WHOM HAS WES JOHNSON BRIBED?

The Minnesota Timberwolves have improved quite a bit this season compared to last year. Much of that can be attributed to Ricky Rubio, some of it to the improved play of Nikola Pekovic, and surely a great portion of the credit belongs to Rick Adelman, mostly through virtue of the fact that he's allocating minutes differently. But the very fact that Adelman is willing to reduce the playing time of underperforming players with large contracts (NO_SUCH_PLAYER(Darko Milicic, Michael Beasley) has me mystified about one thing: why does Weley Johnson ever play, much less start?

Raw Stats
  Min WP48 Wins PTS DRB ORB REB AST TO BLK STL PF
Webster 266 .012 0.1 13.7 5.4 1.3 6.7 0.9 2.3 1.3 2.0 4.9
Tolliver 438 -.021 -0.2 9.8 4.8 2.6 7.5 0.8 1.6 1.1 0.8 4.8
Beasley 588 .012 0.1 22.9 8.0 1.9 9.9 2.0 3.3 0.7 1.1 3.5
Johnson 725 -.033 -0.5 12.4 5.3 0.9 6.2 1.7 2.6 1.1 1.1 3.7
Ellington 451 .062 0.6 14.5 3.6 0.6 4.3 1.4 1.0 0.5 1.5 2.2
 
Average SF 761 .099 1.6 19.1 5.7 1.7 7.3 3.4 2.5 0.8 1.6 3.5
Average C 679 .099 1.4 17.6 9.3 4.2 13.5 2.2 2.8 2.0 1.3 4.8
Average SG 691 .099 1.4 20.2 4.4 1.0 5.4 4.2 2.8 0.4 1.6 3.2

 

Shooting Efficiency
  FG% 2FG% 3FG% FT% eFG% TS% FGA 3FGA PPS FTA
Webster 35.5% 40.9% 28.1% 76.5% 41.4% 45.5% 13.7 5.8 1.00 3.1
Tolliver 34.6% 46.7% 27.1% 75.9% 42.9% 49.0% 8.5 5.3 1.14 3.2
Beasley 42.3% 42.3% 42.6% 65.4% 46.1% 48.3% 21.8 3.8 1.05 4.2
Johnson 38.0% 48.8% 21.7% 63.2% 42.3% 43.4% 13.8 5.5 0.90 1.3
Ellington 38.7% 40.2% 35.6% 77.8% 44.5% 46.9% 14.6 4.8 0.99 1.9
 
Average SF 42.7% 46.3% 34.8% 77.6% 48.1% 52.2% 16.5 5.1 1.16 4.3
Average C 49.4% 50.0% 26.9% 67.0% 49.8% 53.3% 14.3 0.4 1.23 5.0
Average SG 42.4% 45.7% 35.7% 80.2% 48.3% 52.5% 17.4 5.8 1.17 4.3

 

Taking a look at the Minnesota wing players, one thing is obvious: they are all pretty bad. But as I have written before, bad is an upgrade from terrible. And Wes Johnson is having a historically terrible season. And unlike Tolliver and Webster, it would be hard to make an argument that this is sample size, and that Wes Johnson is going through a bad stretch, because...well, I will let Wes' 2010-11 speak for itself:

Raw Stats
  Min WP48 Wins PTS DRB ORB REB AST TO BLK STL PF
Johnson 2068 .018 0.8 16.5 4.4 1.2 5.6 3.5 2.2 1.3 1.3 3.8
 
Average SF 1688 .099 3.5 20.3 5.6 1.6 7.2 3.5 2.4 0.8 1.5 3.5

Shooting Efficiency
  FG% 2FG% 3FG% FT% eFG% TS% FGA 3FGA PPS FTA
Johnson 39.7% 42.7% 35.6% 69.6% 47.3% 49.1% 15.8 6.7 1.04 2.1
 
Average SF 44.6% 48.4% 35.5% 78.4% 49.8% 54.1% 16.7 4.9 1.22 4.7

Basically, Wes has always been terrible. He's now approaching the 3000 minute mark and has yet to come anywhere close to average-level performance. And for a player who could only ever possibly hope to justify his minutes by claiming to be a good defender, he sure is bad at some defensive stats like fouls and steals and getting defensive rebounds.

Again, I would like to emphasize that Martell Webster and Anthony Tolliver are by no means great players. But for all their faults, they've each demonstrated over their careers that they can at least flirt with being average NBA players. This would be a massive upgrade for the Timberwolves. To get some perspective on just how bad Wes is, let's look back on Rashad McCants. Remember how he was so bad that he played himself out of the league completely and became a laughingstock in the NBA? He shot so bad that he was benched completely by arguably the worst team in the NBA?

Name FG% 2FG% 3FG% FT% eFG% TS% FGA 3FGA FTA
Rashad McCants in 08-09 36.0% 38.7% 31.9% 74.1% 42.5% 47.0% 22.0 9.0 6.1
Wesley Johnson Now 37.9% 48.4% 22.1% 57.1% 42.3% 43.2% 13.8 5.6 1.4

I mean...doesn't that say a lot? Johnson's TS% is 10% worse than the worst shooting guard season in recent memory.

And of course, this is just numbers. This isn't even accounting for all the times I have seen Wes just do something bone-crushingly stupid in a game; he's supposed to be a defensive specialist but he's one of the team's poorest decision makers on defense; he fouls players under the basket, but rarely hard enough, so players like Metta World Peace get to pad their horrible stats with generous And-1s. He rotates poorly versus shooters or closes out too strong vs players that don't shoot well from outside. His shot selection is still terrible.  At this point, every minute that Wes plays just seems like somebody in the Wolves' organization is just being obstinate.

Categories: Wesley Johnson

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Chris

Teams usually don't give up on high draft picks so soon, even when there's evidence that they should.

448 days ago

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Frederic Bush

While he may never be good, his shooting percentage is flukishly low right now -- he's very unlikely to shoot 21.7% on 3s for the rest of the season

448 days ago

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Brad R

Sing this from the highest mountain top!

447 days ago

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Patrick Minton

Mr. Bush,

What evidence do you have that he isn't simply a terrible 3-point shooter? His rookie campaign in which he shot more-or-less average? I mean even if he's really 50% better than his stats currently indicate, he'd STILL be terrible at 3-point shooting.

447 days ago

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canishoopus

His shot really is something to behold live. It has a special type of spin.

447 days ago

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gpauger

While it is painfully clear that Wes is terrible, I'm confused as to why Tolliver is included in this analysis. There is no way he gets minutes at the 2. Seems like we could get some decent value at this position by platooning Webster and the Duke. Would like to compare some of their defensive metrics as well.

446 days ago

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Frederic Bush

He had 3x the minutes last year that he's got this year, so his 3p% from last year is likely to be closer to his true %. Plus there are very few NBA-caliber players who take significant numbers of 3pointers whose true 3p% is

446 days ago

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Frederic Bush

You're the one with the stats db at your fingertips. Find guys who shoot

446 days ago

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Patrick Minton

Gpauger: Wes has been playing almost exclusively the 3 this year, since he's so godawful at the 2 that Adelman prefers Ridnour at the 2. Thus, Tolliver is included in the analysis since he spends time at the 3.

446 days ago

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canishoopus

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=RNbt3fOAiu8

Never forget.

(Paraphrasing)

"We thought Wes was the 2nd best shooter in the draft."
- David Kahn

-snp

444 days ago


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