The NBA Season is ready to start on Christmas Day, the last couple of preseason games are being played as I write this up, and it's time for me to cater to every serious NBA fans love of season previews!  The 2011 Geektastic Preview is going to be way too large for one article, so I'm dividing it up into divisions (and even so, it's going to be long, so get a cup of coffee!).  I'm continuing the preview here with the Southwest Division, from worst to first.

NOTE: I've decided that this is going to be my last preview article.  I realized that there are a ton of previews out there, and there are so many other interesting stories to tell.  There's too much basketball going on, especially in this compressed season, to waste time doing previews!  Next year things will be different but the compressed free-agent/trade season this year made it too hard to both wait for rosters to settle and still have time to crank out all the previews before the season starts.

If you're an eastern conference fan, never fear, I'll find plenty of stuff to write about your teams during the year!

Worst: The Sacromento Kings

The Kings appear to be making an all-out youth movement. They lost Dalembert but added Hayes.  They simply don't have the firepower to make the playoffs, but it will be fun to see if Cousins is ready to become an NBA player.

Read the full preview here.

Not Quite as Bad: The Golden State Warriors

Is Biedrins back?  If he is, the Warriors will challenge the Suns for the middle of this division.  Still, the fact that Curry might be dinged up a bit doesn't give me any confidence that this team will make the leap they need to make to contend for the playoffs in the tough West.

Read the full preview here.

The Middle: The Phoenix Suns

The suns are powered by Steve Nash and Marcin Gortat, who has always been underrated (I guess playing behind Dwight Howard is a curse). They'll field a competitive team but the West looks very tough this year, so they will struggle to get a playoff berth.

Read the full preview here.

Pretty Damn Good: The Los Angeles Lakers

At first blush one might thing they're done: Kobe's pissed off and injured, Odom is gone, Bynum is out 5 games.  But McRoberts and Murphy will help a lot more that you think, and if Brown can wake up and realize that Luke Walton should never see the floor before Matt Barnes then the Lakers will still be a top-tier team.

Read the full preview here.

First: The Los Angeles Clippers

Lob City got better not just by adding the best point guard in the league, but also through the improvement that sophomore Blake Griffin is likely to show, and by adding some great players for very cheaply, as the rest of the league mystifyingly did not want Chauncey Billups or Reggie Evans. 

Read the full preview here.

Categories: Golden State Warriors, Los Angeles Clippers, Los Angeles Lakers, Phoenix Suns, Sacramento Kings, Previews

The NBA Season is ready to start on Christmas Day, the last couple of preseason games are being played as I write this up, and it's time for me to cater to every serious NBA fans love of season previews!  The 2011 Geektastic Preview is going to be way too large for one article, so I'm dividing it up into divisions (and even so, it's going to be long, so get a cup of coffee!).  In this article I'm going to preview the Los Angeles Clippers Lob City, Baby!  

Back to the Pacific Division Previews

Note that this article is using the new formula for calculating Wins Produced. If you don't understand the WP metric, see the FAQ.

The 2011-12 Los Angeles Clippers

Lost: bunch of kids and draft picks and shit

Added: Chris FREAKING PAUL

Outlook: My pick to win the Pacific.  Griffin was great last year; sophomores usually get better.  Jordan is also young and getting better. Reggie Evans and Chauncey Billups are both great pickups.

NAME GP MIN WP48 PTS REB AST TO BLK STL PF
Eric Bledsoe 81 1838 .060 14.2 5.8 7.5 5.1 0.7 2.4 3.4
Brian Cook 40 446 -.036 20.8 10.3 1.6 2.7 1.2 1.3 8.1
Randy Foye 63 1553 .004 19.0 3.2 5.3 2.9 0.6 1.5 3.8
Ryan Gomes 76 2094 .071 12.5 5.8 2.7 1.3 0.3 1.4 3.6
DeAndre Jordan 80 2044 .194 13.3 13.5 1.0 2.4 3.3 1.0 6.0
Mo Williams 22 724 .019 22.2 3.7 8.2 4.4 0.0 1.3 3.9
Blake Griffin 82 3110 .160 28.5 15.3 4.8 3.4 0.7 1.0 3.9

Per48 Comparison of raw stats

  WP48 PTS REB AST TO BLK STL PF
Evans .269 8.0 20.8 2.3 2.4 0.4 1.8 5.4
Billups .158 25.1 3.9 8.0 3.7 0.3 1.5 3.0
Butler .017 24.2 6.5 2.6 2.7 0.4 1.6 3.3

 

As you can see from the numbers, the Clippers have a great backcourt.  The best point guard in the game, together with the capable Chauncey Billups and Mo Williams.  Their frontcourt is also not-too-shabby, with last year's rookie of the year and the steady Jordan, both of whom are likely to improve this year (as a factor of experience, and from all the dunks they get from Chris Freaking Paul).

It really can't be stressed enough how great Reggie Evans has always been.  He's a complete monster on the boards, with a rebounding rate that is right up their with Kevin Love. He also doesn't take bad shots, which is key in a team with as many offensive options as this team has.

With their dominant rebounding and the best point guard in the game, the Clippers are my pick to win the Pacific division, getting the edge over the Lakers.

Categories: Blake Griffin, Chris Paul, Reggie Evans, Los Angeles Clippers, Previews, Lob City

The NBA Season is ready to start on Christmas Day, the last couple of preseason games are being played as I write this up, and it's time for me to cater to every serious NBA fans love of season previews!  The 2011 Geektastic Preview is going to be way too large for one article, so I'm dividing it up into divisions (and even so, it's going to be long, so get a cup of coffee!).  In this article I'm going to preview the Lakers, who have lost a little of their mojo but are still going to be a very good basketball team capable of winning 45+ games.  

Back to the Pacific Division Previews

Note that this article is using the new formula for calculating Wins Produced. If you don't understand the WP metric, see the FAQ.

Lost: Shannon Brown, Lamar Odom, a Stare-down with David Stern, Kobe's faith in Management, Vanessa Bryant

Added: Darius Morris, Andrew Goudelock, Ater Majok, (all rookies), Jason Kapono, Josh McRoberts, Troy Murphy

NAME GP MIN WP48 PTS REB AST TO BLK STL PF
Metta World Peace 82 2413 .101 13.9 5.3 3.5 0.7 2.5 1.8 3.6
Matt Barnes 53 1019 .206 16.8 10.7 3.3 1.0 1.8 2.7 6.0
Steve Blake 79 1583 .062 9.7 4.7 5.2 0.1 1.2 2.2 3.0
Kobe Bryant 82 2783 .132 35.8 7.2 6.7 0.2 1.7 4.2 3.0
Andrew Bynum 54 1501 .281 19.6 16.2 2.3 3.4 0.6 2.4 4.5
Derrick Caracter 41 214 -.022 18.2 9.6 1.6 2.2 0.9 4.3 10.5
Devin Ebanks 20 116 .186 25.7 11.2 0.8 2.1 1.7 2.5 2.9
Derek Fisher 82 2296 .048 11.7 3.2 4.7 0.2 2.1 1.5 4.0
Pau Gasol 82 3041 .265 24.3 13.2 4.3 2.1 0.8 2.2 3.2
Luke Walton 54 483 -.034 9.0 6.7 6.2 0.4 0.9 3.1 3.8

 

Per48 Comparison of raw stats

  WP48 PTS REB AST TO BLK STL PF
Kapono -.107 6.5 4.5 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.8 1.6
Mcroberts .209 16.0 11.5 4.5 2.8 1.7 1.4 5.0
Murphy .011 11.2 11.5 2.4 2.0 0.3 1.5 4.8

 

At first my instinct was like "They lost Odom for Nothing!  Kobe's getting older!  And he's pissed!  Bynum's missing 5 games before his annual injury happens.  The Lakers are done!"

Then I looked at the roster. Here's something you probably don't believe if you are new to wins produced: Josh McRoberts is really good. And, as it happens, Troy Murphy was always a great player until last year (.212 WP48 in 2009-10), when he was recovering from injury.  He's a great rebounder and very efficient scorer.  Yes, I know he's not a quick defender but his rebounding and shooting make up for it. The Lakers have managed to cheaply cover for the loss of Odom.  The big issue for the Lakers will be the point guard position, where the 73-year old Derek Fisher will get lots of minutes, and whether or not Brown will wisely allocate minutes.  My suspicion is that Brown won't do a good job here; Matt Barnes getting a DNP-CD in the first decision certainly reeks of incompetence.

And then, of course, there are injuries. Kobe's torn a tendon in is shooting hand; that can't be good. And Bynum...well, every time Bynum jumps Lakers fans hold their breath, because he seems to come down badly on knees and ankles a lot.

If there are no injuries, they will fight tooth-and-nail with the Clippers for the #1 spot in the Pacific. I gave the edge to the Clippers because I expect the sophomore improvement from the already-great Griffin, and because I think Reggie Evans was a fantastic pick up for them that puts them over the top.  If Bynum goes down, all bets are off; they'll struggle to get homecourt advantage in the playoffs if that happens.

Categories: Andrew Bynum, Josh Mcroberts, Kobe Bryant, Pau Gasol, Troy Murphy, Los Angeles Lakers, Previews

The NBA Season is ready to start on Christmas Day, the last couple of preseason games are being played as I write this up, and it's time for me to cater to every serious NBA fans love of season previews!  The 2011 Geektastic Preview is going to be way too large for one article, so I'm dividing it up into divisions (and even so, it's going to be long, so get a cup of coffee!).  In this article I'm going to preview the Phoenix Suns.  

Back to the Pacific Division Previews

Note that this article is using the new formula for calculating Wins Produced. If you don't understand the WP metric, see the FAQ.

Lost: Vince Carter, Aaron Brooks, Zabian Dowdell, Gani Lawal, Jason Richardson

Added: Markieff Morris, Shannon Brown, Ronnie Price, Sebastian Telfair

Outlook: Not good.  Steve Nash is still one of those players that keeps a team from being complete bottom dwellers, but the Suns have been trading away or letting go of good players for years, and it's finally catching up to them.

NAME GP MIN WP48 PTS REB AST TO BLK STL PF
Josh Childress 54 895 .202 14.6 8.3 2.3 1.2 1.8 2.4 3.6
Jared Dudley 82 2136 .187 19.5 7.1 2.4 0.4 2.0 1.7 3.1
Channing Frye 77 2541 -.007 18.4 9.7 1.8 1.5 0.9 1.4 5.1
Marcin Gortat 55 1637 .174 21.0 15.0 1.6 2.1 0.9 1.9 4.0
Grant Hill 80 2408 .092 21.0 6.7 4.0 0.7 1.3 2.7 3.7
Robin Lopez 67 993 -.031 20.9 10.4 0.4 2.2 0.9 2.3 6.9
Steve Nash 75 2497 .244 21.3 5.0 16.4 0.1 0.9 5.1 1.7
Garret Siler 21 103 -.016 21.0 13.0 1.4 1.9 0.5 4.7 9.3
Hakim Warrick 80 1415 .091 22.7 10.0 2.3 0.3 1.1 2.7 3.4

 

  WP48 PTS REB AST TO BLK STL PF
Price -.035 19.4 4.3 6.7 3.2 0.1 1.7 3.7
Brown .025 21.8 4.8 2.9 2.3 0.5 2.1 3.8
Telfair -.039 18.0 3.6 7.5 4.3 0.2 1.6 4.3

 

Sigh.  How logn before #FreeSteveNash is trending on twitter? The Suns sort of have a "big three" of Steve Nash, Josh Childress and Macin Gortat (the latter two have, of course, always been under-appreciated), but they don't have a lot of depth and Telfair and Price are both horrible additions. Markieff is, in my opinion, the "good" Morris, a good rebounder and efficient shooter; he'll fit in great with Steve Nash, but he'd have to make a rookie-of-the-year impact to push this team into contention.

I don't know what to think about the Suns.  I'm really torn about whether the Warriors will be better them (if Biedrins and Lee return to form), but I think the Suns will flirt with the 8th seed in the West, but Lopez, like his brother in New Jersey, is simply not the answer under the basket. He doesn't rebound well enough, isn't a very good defender (note the fouls) and isn't a ver efficient shooter either.  What is he good at?  Why do these two brothers get so much respect?

Mostly, I'm just playing the "how bad can any team with Steve Nash on the roster ever really be?" card, and I'm not sure that will be enough to keep them out of the lottery.

Categories: Steve Nash, Phoenix Suns, Previews

The NBA Season is ready to start on Christmas Day, the last couple of preseason games are being played as I write this up, and it's time for me to cater to every serious NBA fans love of season previews!  The 2011 Geektastic Preview is going to be way too large for one article, so I'm dividing it up into divisions (and even so, it's going to be long, so get a cup of coffee!).  In this article I'm going to preview the Sacramento Kings.  

Back to the Pacific Division Previews

Note that this article is using the new formula for calculating Wins Produced. If you don't understand the WP metric, see the FAQ.

Lost: Omri Casspri, Beno Udrih, Samual Dalembert, Marquis Daniels, Darnell Jackson, Pooh Jeter

Added: Jimmer Fredette, Tyler Honeycutt, Isaiah Thomas (all rookies), Chuck Hayes, Travis Outlaw, JJ Hickson, John Salmons

Outlook: Last in the Pacific.  This team is going all-out on youth.

NAME GP MIN WP48 PTS REB AST TO BLK STL PF
DeMarcus Cousins 81 2310 -.023 23.8 14.5 4.3 1.4 1.8 5.6 6.9
Tyreke Evans 57 2111 .003 23.0 6.3 7.3 0.7 1.9 4.2 3.3
Francisco Garcia 58 1390 .116 19.3 4.6 2.5 1.7 1.8 1.6 4.4
Jason Thompson 75 1750 .034 18.2 12.5 2.4 1.2 0.8 2.7 5.8
Marcus Thornton 27 1030 .123 26.7 5.9 4.3 0.2 2.1 2.6 2.8
Hassan Whiteside 1 2 -.794 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 48.0
Donte Greene 69 1132 .002 17.0 6.2 2.0 0.8 1.5 2.5 3.7

 

That's a lot of new faces!  Check out the veterans added:

  WP48 PTS REB AST TO BLK STL PF
Salmons .091 19.2 5.0 4.7 2.6 0.5 1.4 3.0
Outlaw .001 15.4 6.6 1.7 1.4 0.8 0.7 3.0
Hayes .206 13.4 13.8 4.7 2.0 1.1 1.8 4.6
Hickson .025 23.5 14.8 1.9 3.7 1.1 1.0 4.6

 

And then there are 3 rookies.  The loss of Dalambert will hurt but Hayes will probably make up for it.  Salmons has always been the very definition of average (and, incidentally, overrated).  Outlaw and Hickson won't help much (and I don't think many will find that assertion controversial).

Tyreke Evens regressed last year, which isn't a good sign -- young players generally improve in their first few seasons.  Some of this may be due to injury, but it's worrisome that he doesn't have 3-point range.  He needs to make a big leap in shooting efficiency in order to justify his playing time. DeMarcus Cousins was a very good college player but so far he's been a bust -- even if he improves a lot this year, he'll still be below average.

Sacramento will be relying heavily on their rookies to be better than average, which is a big gamble.  It's hard to imagine any of them having the kind of rookies season that would make a big enough impact to propel the Kings into playoff contention.

Categories: Sacramento Kings, Previews