Ok, it's been ten games. Even so, thanks to some head-scratching coaching decisions, many of our rookies have very small sample sizes. But we can't wait forever on sample sizes or we wouldn't write anything about this year's rookies until after the all-star break, and we've got blogs to run, dammit.

Using my handy comparison engine, I found the top 10 rookies sorted by WP48 (I manually filtered out guys with fewer than 100 minutes).

	POS	Min	WP48	PoP48	Wins	PTS	DRB	ORB	REB	AST	TO	BLK	STL	PF
Drummond	C PF	169	.361	8.2	1.3	20.4	8.8	6.0	14.8	1.4	2.6	3.1	2.6	5.7
Harkless	SF SG PF	113	.319	6.9	0.8	11.5	8.9	4.7	13.6	1.7	0.8	3.4	1.7	4.2
Kidd-Gilchrist	SF SG PF	246	.258	4.9	1.3	20.5	7.8	4.9	12.7	2.9	3.3	2.7	2.0	4.7
Davis	PF SF C	170	.257	4.9	0.9	27.1	8.5	5.6	14.1	1.4	2.5	3.7	1.7	3.1
James	FC PF C	121	.170	2.2	0.4	16.3	9.9	5.6	15.5	0.6	2.8	3.2	0.4	5.2
Ezeli	C PF	184	.141	1.3	0.5	11.0	6.0	6.8	12.8	0.3	2.6	2.1	1.3	5.5
Sullinger	PF SF C	196	.128	0.9	0.5	13.5	7.6	3.7	11.3	1.5	1.2	1.2	0.7	6.6
Lillard	PG SG	375	.120	0.6	0.9	24.3	3.2	0.9	4.1	7.8	4.2	0.1	1.9	2.4
Singler	SF SG PF	258	.119	0.6	0.6	19.9	3.7	1.9	5.6	1.1	1.5	1.7	0.4	5.6
Barnes	SF SG PF	309	.117	0.6	0.8	19.7	6.1	2.0	8.1	2.2	2.6	0.2	1.1	4.3
Prigioni	G PG SG SF	104	.116	0.5	0.3	10.2	1.8	0.5	2.3	10.2	3.7	0.0	3.7	4.6

And here are the top rookies in minutes played:

	POS	Min	WP48	PoP48	Wins	PTS	DRB	ORB	REB	AST	TO	BLK	STL	PF
Lillard	PG SG	375	.120	0.6	0.9	24.3	3.2	0.9	4.1	7.8	4.2	0.1	1.9	2.4
Barnes	SF SG PF	309	.117	0.6	0.8	19.7	6.1	2.0	8.1	2.2	2.6	0.2	1.1	4.3
Waiters	SG PG SF	292	-.027	-3.9	-0.2	22.5	3.5	0.2	3.6	3.3	3.0	0.3	1.8	2.3
Singler	SF SG PF	258	.119	0.6	0.6	19.9	3.7	1.9	5.6	1.1	1.5	1.7	0.4	5.6
Kidd-Gilchrist	SF SG PF	246	.258	4.9	1.3	20.5	7.8	4.9	12.7	2.9	3.3	2.7	2.0	4.7
Beal	SG PG SF	244	.015	-2.6	0.1	20.7	3.9	1.0	4.9	2.8	3.0	0.8	1.6	2.8
Shved	PG SG	209	.100	0.0	0.4	21.6	4.6	1.8	6.4	8.7	3.7	1.6	0.7	2.8
Crowder	SF SG PF	201	.073	-0.8	0.3	17.4	5.7	0.0	5.7	2.9	1.9	0.5	1.4	5.5
Valanciunas	C PF	201	.021	-2.4	0.1	18.1	6.4	5.7	12.2	2.1	3.1	1.4	1.0	7.9
Rivers	PG SG	200	-.115	-6.7	-0.5	11.3	2.6	0.5	3.1	4.6	3.4	0.2	1.9	3.1
Sullinger	PF SF C	196	.128	0.9	0.5	13.5	7.6	3.7	11.3	1.5	1.2	1.2	0.7	6.6
Ezeli	C PF	184	.141	1.3	0.5	11.0	6.0	6.8	12.8	0.3	2.6	2.1	1.3	5.5
Leonard	C PF	175	.097	-0.1	0.4	10.4	6.6	4.1	10.7	0.8	1.4	1.9	0.8	6.3
Davis	PF SF C	170	.257	4.9	0.9	27.1	8.5	5.6	14.1	1.4	2.5	3.7	1.7	3.1
Drummond	C PF	169	.361	8.2	1.3	20.4	8.8	6.0	14.8	1.4	2.6	3.1	2.6	5.7
Taylor		164	-.067	-5.2	-0.2	12.3	2.6	2.0	4.7	2.3	2.0	1.2	0.9	2.6
Robinson	PF SF C	134	.053	-1.4	0.1	15.0	6.1	3.9	10.0	1.8	3.6	0.4	3.2	8.2
Zeller	FC PF C	128	-.001	-3.1	-0.0	14.6	6.0	4.1	10.1	1.9	2.6	1.1	1.9	6.0
Miller	GF SG SF	124	.109	0.3	0.3	8.1	4.3	0.0	4.3	3.9	1.5	0.4	2.7	4.3
Nicholson	PF SF C	123	.007	-2.9	0.0	23.0	7.4	2.3	9.8	1.2	2.7	2.0	0.8	6.2

Just like last year, there is weird stuff going on. Anthony Davis has only played 6 games, and got hurt in one of those, so it's clear why his minutes are a little low. But otherwise, we see that the two top-ten lists don't correlate as well as you'd hope. Kidd-Gilchrist, Damien Lillard, Kyle Singler and Harrison Barnes are in both top ten lists. Alexey Shved's playing time also has an easy explanation: the Timberwolves have so many injuries that we now call them the Walking Shved.

But why hasn't Andre Drummond been getting a ton of playing time? It sure as hell isn't because the Pistons are trying to "win now". What is it about those nights where Drummond plays 14 minutes, grabs 3 rebounds, 2 blocks, a steal, and scores 10 points with 80% true shooting that makes Frank hesitate to see what he can do in 20 minutes? Or 25?

And why isn't Harkless playing more? Is it because Orlando wants to see just how awful Arron Afflalo can get first?

But it's the second list that is so confusing. Why, please, for the love of Naismith somebody explain to me why anybody thinks that Austin Rivers should be in the NBA. In college, he was a terrible shooter (which is a bad sign for, you know, a shooting guard). In the pros so far, he's been a terrible shooter. Occam's Razor tells me that Austin Rivers probably just isn't very good at shooting. So....come on, folks, please let me in on the secret. Just.....why?

Why's everyone so impressed with Waiters? I don't get it. He's had two fantastic games (against LAC and against Pheoenix), and a whole bunch of bad games, and it all averages out to poor shooting, rebounding, passing, and ball-handling numbers. Again, let me in on the secret. The same is true of Beal, bad shooting, passing, rebounding, ball-handling, 2 good games and a bunch of really bad games, only Beal's good games weren't even as good as Waiters.

The rookie of the year so far has been Kidd-Gilchrist; I suspect Anthony Davis will overtake this as he gets minutes, but he's been amazing so far. He's been a LeBron-like rebounder (13 per 48 as a small forward, behind only Durant and that guy Harkless who cannot take minutes from Afflalo), has been very good at getting to the line and getting steals, and is a fantastic shot-blocker (3rd among SFs behind Kirilenko and...yes, Harkless. What the hell, Mr. Vaughn?). He's the primary reason for Charlotte's improvement this year.

What about you folks? Who has impressed you so far?

Categories: Andre Drummond, Austin Rivers, Dion Waiters, Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, rookies

Believe it or not, one of the reasons I wrote the software for this site is because I'm super curious about the data, and I love sorting/filtering/searching through data to find things to write about.* There are tons of sites out there, but Basketball Reference is the only one that comes remotely close to offering the kinds of sorting/filtering that I want, and of course, until my site and the one that Andres built at The Wages of Wins, most of them didn't have wins produced, or only had it for their favorite teams. I used to get downright itchy waiting for David Berri to profile a team or player I liked. Finally I got fed up and decided the only way to always get the answers I wanted was to write a tool myself.

*If you are the GM of an NBA Basketball, team, yes, this is indeed a not-very-subtle hint that I should work for you.

Today I'm going to use that tool to evaluate the rookies that, in my mind, are getting a mystifying lack of burn from their coaches. Take a look at the entire rookie class on the player page. Feel free to mess around with the sorting. Here are the top ten sorted by minutes played at the time of this writing (before games on Jan 5th):

NAME	TEAM	POS	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	WP48	Wins
Fredette, Jimmer	SAC	PG	7	178	18.3	3.0	4.9	-.075	-.3
Rubio, Ricky	MIN	PG	6	166	16.2	6.7	12.1	.263	.9
Brooks, Marshon	NJN	SG	7	163	29.2	7.1	1.5	.168	.6
Cole, Norris	MIA	PG	7	159	24.2	3.6	7.2	.021	.1
Irving, Kyrie	CLE	PG	6	155	26.3	6.8	9.9	.123	.4
Pargo, Jeremy	MEM	PG	6	137	16.5	4.6	7.0	-.031	-.1
Knight, Brandon	DET	G	6	137	21.0	3.5	5.6	-.044	-.1
Morris, Markieff	PHO	PF	6	118	20.7	13.0	2.8	.260	.6
Thompson, Tristan	CLE	PF	6	116	21.5	12.0	0.8	.085	.2
Singleton, Chris	WAS	SF	6	116	9.5	5.8	0.0	.067	.2
Walker, Kemba	CHA	PG	6	110	24.0	6.1	8.3	-.045	-.1

 

And here are the top ten sorted by WP48 (I ignored players with < 50 minutes):

NAME	TEAM	POS	GP	MIN	PTS	REB	AST	WP48	Wins
Leuer, Jon	MIL	PF	5	66	18.9	11.6	1.5	.320	.4
Stiemsma, Greg	BOS	C	5	82	12.9	12.9	2.3	.280	.5
Rubio, Ricky	MIN	PG	6	166	16.2	6.7	12.1	.263	.9
Morris, Markieff	PHO	PF	6	118	20.7	13.0	2.8	.260	.6
Leonard, Kawhi	SAS	SF	6	99	15.0	14.1	1.5	.225	.5
Kanter, Enes	UTH	C	6	89	15.6	17.8	1.1	.194	.4
Burks, Alec	UTH	SG	5	56	28.3	5.1	6.9	.193	.2
Brooks, Marshon	NJN	SG	7	163	29.2	7.1	1.5	.168	.6
Williams, Derrick	MIN	F	6	106	19.5	11.3	1.4	.142	.3
Irving, Kyrie	CLE	PG	6	155	26.3	6.8	9.9	.123	.4

 

Notice any glaring differences? 6 of the top 10 per-minute performers aren't in the top 10 minutes played. And half of the players getting the most minutes are playing terrible basketball. I realize we are still in the realm of small sample sizes. But here's two things: 1)the sample sizes aren't going to get big very fast if you are allocating minutes in nibble-size chunks instead of hearty meals, and 2) it's not like some of these guys have all-stars in front of them getting minutes.

The one that confuses me the most is Greg Stiemsma. I mean, look at that Celtics team. This is a team that has had reporters all pre-season long saying that their center position is weak. Their options are:

• Kevin Garnett playing out of position (and let it be noted that Rivers wants to rest Garnett a lot, so this option has limits)
• Jermaine O'Neal, who's old and hasn't played good basketball for a decade. Relying on him to return to 2002 form seems like a fool's mission to me.
• Chris Wilcox, who's always been average/above average, but is getting old

Then, along comes a rookie who seems to be answering all of the Celtics' prayers:

Raw Stats
	Min	WP48	Wins	PTS	REB	AST	TO	BLK	STL	PF
Stiemsma	82	.280	0.5	12.9	12.9	2.3	1.8	7.6	0.6	9.4
Average C	139	.099	0.3	17.6	13.0	2.0	2.7	2.1	1.3	5.1

 

Shooting Efficiency
	FG%	2FG%	3FG%	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FGA	PPS	FTA
Stiemsma	61.5%	61.5%	0.0%	75.0%	61.5%	66.6%	7.6	1.69	4.7
Average C	49.8%	50.5%	32.0%	66.7%	50.4%	54.1%	13.9	1.27	5.4

 

The kid's basically doing what he's supposed to on a team full of veterans: rebound, block shots, don't turn the ball over, don't take bad shots, hit free throws. He's just what the doctor ordered. Unless you are Doctor Rivers, who has parked him on the bench. Look, I don't know, maybe he's just on a hot-shooting streak. Maybe he'll foul out every game if you gave him 25 minutes. But again, you've got Jermaine O'Neal on the floor. Isn't it worth giving him some minutes to, you know, see what happens? How much worse than O'Neal can he possibly be?

And how about Enes Kanter and Alec Burks? These two have really got me confused and #SMH.

Raw Stats
	Min	WP48	Wins	PTS	REB	AST	TO	BLK	STL	PF
Kanter	89	.194	0.4	15.6	17.8	1.1	1.1	1.6	1.1	3.8
Burks	56	.193	0.2	28.3	5.1	6.9	4.3	0.9	1.7	3.4
Average C	139	.099	0.3	17.6	13.0	2.0	2.7	2.1	1.3	5.1
Average SG	142	.099	0.3	20.3	5.5	4.4	2.9	0.5	1.6	3.6

 

Shooting Efficiency
	FG%	2FG%	3FG%	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FGA	PPS	FTA
Kanter	41.7%	41.7%	0.0%	64.3%	41.7%	48.1%	12.9	1.21	7.6
Burks	47.8%	52.6%	25.0%	76.9%	50.0%	57.5%	19.7	1.43	11.1
Average C	49.8%	50.5%	32.0%	66.7%	50.4%	54.1%	13.9	1.27	5.4
Average SG	41.2%	45.3%	32.9%	78.8%	46.6%	51.0%	17.8	1.14	4.7

 

 

Here's a shooting guard who's shooting the ball well (that is what the shooting guard is supposed to do, right?), passing well, and getting to the line like he's Dwyane Wade. And a center whose shooting woes are made up for by several positives: 1) he rebounds like Kevin Love, 2) he apparently has a grip of steel because he's rarely turning the ball over, and 3) he's not chucking lots of shots so his shooting percentage isn't really hurting much. And this is a team that clearly is going all-out on youth anyway. They traded away Okur. They aren't going to make the playoffs with these veterans. What is Utah worried about!? Why is Raja Bell playing even one minute instead of Burks? More importantly why is Raja Bell still in the NBA!?

Then there's Derrick Williams. Speaking strictly as a Timberwolves fan, I'll be the first to say that Williams has not been amazing. He's made his share of bone-headed plays. But he should be playing more. A lot more. And the primary reason is that for all his rookie faults, he's still having a decent season. And, far more importantly, he is so much better than Michael Beasley that...well, I have no words:

Raw Stats
	Min	WP48	Wins	PTS	REB	AST	TO	BLK	STL	PF
Beasley	194	-.114	-0.5	20.0	9.2	1.7	4.2	0.5	0.7	4.5
Williams	106	.142	0.3	19.5	11.3	1.4	4.1	0.0	2.3	5.0
Average SF	146	.099	0.3	19.1	7.3	3.2	2.4	0.8	1.5	3.7
Average F	144	.099	0.3	19.4	9.4	2.8	2.4	1.0	1.5	4.2

 

Shooting Efficiency
	FG%	2FG%	3FG%	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FGA	PPS	FTA
Beasley	40.2%	40.3%	40.0%	41.2%	42.5%	42.9%	21.5	0.93	4.2
Williams	51.5%	61.9%	33.3%	41.7%	57.6%	56.2%	14.9	1.30	5.4
Average SF	42.6%	45.1%	36.7%	77.6%	48.1%	52.4%	16.3	1.17	4.4
Average F	44.9%	47.7%	35.1%	73.9%	48.8%	52.7%	16.4	1.19	4.7

 

 

Note that I am comparing Beasley to SFs and Williams to a combinations of the average SF/PF; Williams WP48 would be higher if we treated him as an SF and Beasley's would be even lower if we treated him as a PF (see Calculating Wins Produced for the section on how we adjust for position).

Basiically, if you gave all of Beasley's minutes to Williams, the Wolves could easily have won 4-5 games by now. No, I'm not joking. Beasley is truly earth-shatteringly bad. To put in perspective what a selfish chucker Beasley is, he ranks 8th among small forwards the NBA in FGA per 48 minutes (50 minutes minimum), but fifty-first in true shooting. No, not 51st in the NBA, 51st among small forwards. That means that essentially all of the starting SFs and two-thirds of the back-up SFs in the league are shooting better than he is, but he's shooting 22 shots per 48. And I don't keep stats for "contested 22-footers per 48" but having watched every Timberwolves game I'm going to guess he leads the league by a fat margin, ahead of even Kobe (I'm guessing that's the reason that he's 25th among small forwards at getting to the line, despite all those shots). Oh, yeah, and he turns the ball over a shitton. In short, Beasley is the very definition of a player that shoots you out of games. Every single time they choose to iso Beasley instead of just letting Ridnour or Rubio create off the dribble / pick-n-roll, a Timberwolf pup dies in the wild.

Williams is as turnover prone as Beasley, but I can chalk Williams' TOs up to rookie mistakes and a general rookie "over-eager" attitude, which he may learn from. Most of his TOs come from ill-advised passes. Beasley, however, is a third-year player; the vast majority of his turnovers come from him trying to "create a shot" (a phrase that I guarantee I'll be ranting about in a future article) and I don't expect him to change anytime soon.

Last but definitely not least is Jon Leuer:

Raw Stats
	Min	WP48	Wins	PTS	REB	AST	TO	BLK	STL	PF
Leuer	66	.320	0.4	18.9	11.6	1.5	0.7	2.2	2.9	5.8
Average PF	142	.099	0.3	19.8	11.6	2.4	2.4	1.2	1.4	4.7

 

Shooting Efficiency
	FG%	2FG%	3FG%	FT%	eFG%	TS%	FGA	PPS	FTA
Leuer	55.0%	57.9%	0.0%	100.0%	55.0%	59.7%	14.5	1.30	2.9
Average PF	47.1%	49.5%	31.8%	71.1%	49.2%	53.0%	16.5	1.20	5.1

As I wrote on Monday in my Geeks of the Week post, Leuer has been amazing so far. He's shoting efficiently, has a a bunch of steals and blocks and almost no turnovers. But he hasn't played many minutes. He could just be playing well over a small stretch, but why on earth wouldn't Scott Skiles want to play him more and find out? Does he have Kevin Love and Blake Griffin ahead of Leuer on the depth chart? What on earth is going on? I find this exceptionally puzzling since Mbah a Moute appears to have been struggling with injuries.

It's particularly odd that teams seem so reluctant to dole out minutes to rookies because they seem equally reluctant to let go of 2nd- and 3rd-year players on their rookie contracts who are truly terrible. Minnesota's examples include Wes Johnson and previously Jonny Flynn and Corey Brewer -- there's simply no reason to hang on to these players (or give them minutes). It's times like these when I start to think that minute allocation by most coaches may as well be arbitrary.

Categories: Rubioops, rookies