* The win-loss record that wins produced would have predicted based on players' WP48 so far (ignores previous seasons).
** future games only -- takes current record as given
The other day I did the ten worst contracts of the season. It was a fairly big hit, and as usual, not everyone agreed with my picks. I expect more of the same today, as I pick the ten best.
The dust has (almost) settled on the 2012 offseason. I think it's time for us to look at the best and worst contracts of this season. It seems like every year, several teams are looking to unload "bad" contracts. We often forget that teams weren't just magically saddled with those bad contracts; somebody volunteered to pay them.
Regulars readers of my blog, and the Wages of Wins, will know that I am a big proponent of data-driven analysis because the human mind is known to fall victim to lots of cognitive biases. Worse, the awareness of cognitive bias does not protect a person from falling victim to them. Two very common bias that I see running rampant the last couple of days are framing and anchoring. Framing is extremely common in political rhetoric precisely because it is extremely effective. And I use them all the time in my rhetoric. I can tell you this with no trepidation because I know that even though I am telling you this, the next time you read something that makes sense to you, the knowledge that I might just be abusing a cognitive bias will not protect you.
As with part 1 (which you can read here), I'm calling them guesses, not predictions, because this way if I'm completely wrong, I won't look as stupid. Will I do something as crazy as amnestying Kobe freaking Bryant again today?